3E Intelligence

The publication of a new US report on global oil and gas supplies yesterday confirms that the world economy is on the verge of a new “oil shock”. Coming ten days after the IEA’s gloomy prediction of increasing oil supply tightness by 2012, the National Petroleum Council’s report “Facing the hard truths about energy” admits that serious energy efficiency policies and a global framework for managing greenhouse gas emissions will be needed to deal with the growing oil demand/supply gap.

The report is all the more remarkable because its authors are some of the most active oil industry “cheerleaders” such as ExxonMobil’s former chairman Lee Raymond and energy expert Dan Yergin. Both of them have in the past tried to ridicule all “Cassandra callings” on the situation of the global oil and gas market.

With oil prices at record levels again and Goldman Sachs predicting a crude oil price of 95$ by the end of the year, it seems clear that it will not take long anymore before the “last oil shock” (David Strahan) will get as high on the political agenda as climate change is now.

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